# EBCM

1. Regarding each of your three Part 1 scenarios for [CO2] in 2100:
1. Estimate the temperature change via EBCM for each scenario. (To make use of EBCM, make a copy of the spreadsheet provided. Adjust only the temperature-difference value in cell I6 to obtain the desired [CO2] value in cell D8.)
2. On a copy of the “2. Future Warming Pathways” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6), plot your three estimates for 2100, and identify the corresponding emissions scenario.
3. Using a copy of the “4. Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6), estimate the CO2 emissions for 2100 in GtCO2/yr corresponding to each of your three scenarios.
2. Regarding the potential for a ‘COVID-19 anomaly’ at York U in 2021:
1. Based on the calculatorhere, when does the maximum UV Index value occur?
2. Using Figure 1(b) from the research publicationhere, estimate the maximum value of the increase in DWSW irradiance at the same date as the UV Index maximum in W/m2.
3. Obtain theEMOS irradiance data corresponding to this same date.
1. State the maximum value of the DWSW irradiance in W/m2.
2. Add the increase in DWSW irradiance from the research publication to your EMOS data to determine the percentage increase. (This is COVID-19 anomaly in terms of DWSW irradiance at EMOS.)
4. Subtract the percentage increase in the DWSW irradiance data from cell I8 of the EBCM model. (Ensure your temperature calculations have been zeroed out in EBCM – i.e., cell I6 has been reset to 0.)
5. State the resulting temperature change determined by EBCM from cell D6. (Ignore the change in [CO2].)
6. How does your EBCM temperature estimate compare with Figure 1(c) of the research publication?
7. How does Figure 1(a) from the research publication factor into this COVID-19 anomaly scenario?
8. In his recent book, Bill Gates stated: “… the world’s greenhouse gas emissions probably dropped just 5 percent, and possibly less than that. What’s remarkable to me is not how much emissions went down because of the pandemic, but how little.” Does Gates’ notion of what’s remarkable apply to your analysis? Explain.
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